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The Census Bureau's new projections of U.S. population assume lower birth rates and lower migration rates than had been used for the projections that were released in 2008. The new projections also assume lower mortality rates for some ages but higher mortality rates for other ages.
Age 65 and Over
The new projection for age 65 and over in 2050 is 5.4 percent lower than the previous projection. This reflects changes in immigration assumptions as well as changes in mortality assumptions.
Survival to the oldest age groups had been overstated in past projections due to overcounts of population in those age groups by prior censuses. The new projections have fewer people in the oldest age groups for the base year and they also assume less future improvement in their mortality rates than had been assumed previously. Thus, the new projection for age 85 and over in 2050 is 5.6 percent lower than the previous projection for that year.
Other Age Groups
The 2008 projections were prepared during a time of high immigration and normal fertility, but the new figures were prepared during a time of low immigration and very low fertility. The new projections assume that both immigration and fertility will be considerably lower in the future than had been previously assumed.
Thus, the new figure for Americans under age 18 in 2050 is 15 percent lower than the previous projection for that year, and the new figure for ages 18-64 is 7.5 percent lower than the previous projection.
Links to the Projections and Related Analysis
The new projections are available from the U.S. Census Bureau's projection page.
Further discussion of the projections is provided in a posting on the Census Bureau's blog page.
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