Dec. 22, 2006

New population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau indicate that Michigan's population for 2006 is 10,095,643 persons, a decrease of about 5,000 from last year.

"Michigan's estimated population is essentially unchanged over the past two years," said Michigan's state demographer, Kenneth Darga.  "The new estimates say that Michigan had an increase of 7,000 last year and a decrease of 5,000 this year.  Both of these changes are well within the margin of error for these estimates."

Michigan's estimated population for 2006 reflects several small changes from last year:  a decrease in births, an increase in deaths, and an increase in net out-migration to other states.  At least two of these changes may be overstated, Darga said.  The new estimates reflect only 125,014 births for 2005, but the actual count from the Michigan Department of Community Health is 127,518.  Likewise, the new figures reflect 88,987 deaths for 2005 while MDCH counted only 86,785.

"These two discrepancies might normally be of interest only to demographers," Darga said, "but together they account for just over 90 percent of the estimated decline in Michigan's population from 2005 to 2006."  Darga said that discrepancies have been noted in other states as well, and state demographers are looking into possible improvements in the Census Bureau's methodology that could prevent such discrepancies in the future.

The biggest factor holding back population growth in Michigan is net migration to other states, which has been increasing gradually since 1999.  However, Darga pointed out that Michigan's current level of out-migration is lower than in the early 1960s, the mid-1970s or the early 1980s.  "Based on the Census Bureau's new estimates, Michigan lost an estimated net total of 115,000 residents through migration from April 2000 through July 2006.  That is considerably less than the 158,000 residents lost through migration from 1981 to 1982 alone."

One reason why Michigan is not losing more population, according to Darga, is that there has been considerable convergence of unemployment rates among the states.  "The states with the best unemployment rates have not been doing quite as well as they usually do, while the states with the worst rates are not doing as badly as usual," Darga says.  "Because of that convergence, 38 states with 86 percent of the nation's population have unemployment rates within 3 percentage points of Michigan's rate in 2006, based on data for the first 10 months of the year."

Michigan's average unemployment rate for the first 10 months of 2006 has been 2.1 percentage points higher than the corresponding national figure.  In 1981, when Michigan's unemployment was 4.9 percentage points higher than the national figure, only six states had unemployment rates within 3 percentage points of Michigan's.  Although the current gap between Michigan's unemployment rate and the lowest rate in the U.S. is larger than it was between 1994 and 2005, it is smaller that it ever was between 1976 and 1993.

An analysis of the new estimates, along with tables, is available on the Department of History, Arts and Libraries' census Web site at www.michigan.gov/census.  Additional materials developed by the Library of Michigan and affiliated organizations of the state data center network are routinely added to this Web site as they become available.

The Library of Michigan is part of the Michigan Department of History, Arts and Libraries (HAL).  Dedicated to enriching quality of life and strengthening the economy by providing access to information, preserving and promoting Michigan's heritage, and fostering cultural creativity, the department also includes the Mackinac Island State Park Commission, the Michigan Council for Arts and Cultural Affairs, the Michigan Film Office and the Michigan Historical Center.

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