Early Warning Indicators

Projection Model

The Outreach, School Review, and Fiscal Analysis Section (OSRFA) applies a financial projection model to the three most recent years of Financial Information Database (FID) data. The model incorporates four key financial indicators: enrollment, revenue, expenditure, and fund balance. The school districts, intermediate school districts, and public school academies that are projected to incur a deficit are contacted by OSRFA to determine if corrective action has occurred. Districts that have not taken OSRFA-approved corrective action will be identified as having potential fiscal stress.

Formula

The projection model spreadsheet linked below contains the formula used to project fund balances. This is the first step in identifying potential fiscal stress. This spreadsheet allows districts to input financial data to produce the projection model's result.

Projection Model Spreadsheet


Budget Review

Another method in identifying potential fiscal stress is reviewing district and public school academy budgets and amendments. OSRFA reviews the financial transparency pages of all districts and public school academies three times a year. Districts and public school academies that are projecting to spend a majority of their fund balance are contacted by OSRFA to determine if corrective action has occurred. Districts that have not taken OSRFA-approved corrective action will be identified as having potential fiscal stress.

REMINDER: MCL 388.1618(2) requires districts to post budgets within 15 days after adopting its annual operating budget and after each subsequent revision to that budget.