Michigan's January Jobless Rate Unchanged

Lansing – Michigan’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in January was unchanged from December’s 4.7 percent, according to data released today by the Michigan Department of Technology, Management & Budget (DTMB).  Total employment moved downward slightly by 3,000 while the number of unemployed in the state inched up by 1,000.  The net impact was a minor reduction in the state’s January workforce.

The Michigan jobless rate in January 2018 was three-tenths a percentage point below the state’s January 2017 rate of 5.0 percent.  The national jobless rate declined by seven-tenths of a percentage point over this period.  The state’s unemployment rate in January was six-tenths of a percentage point above the national rate.  The U.S. jobless was unchanged at 4.1 percent in January.

“Newly revised data from the annual revision process for Michigan show that the state’s jobless rate was unchanged at 4.7 percent from September 2017 through January 2018.  Michigan’s rates have been very stable since mid-year 2015, declining only slightly in 2017,” said Jason Palmer, director of the Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives.  “The state’s jobless rate fell for the eighth straight year in 2017, while payroll jobs rose for the seventh consecutive year.  However, overall job gains in 2017 were somewhat below the advances of the prior six years.”

Monthly Labor Force Trends & Highlights

• With the annual revision process, Michigan’s 2017 annual unemployment rate was revised slightly upward by one-tenth of a percentage point from 4.5 to 4.6 percent.  The state’s 2016 rate was also revised upward by one-tenth of a percentage point from 4.9 to 5.0 percent, while Michigan’s 2014 rate was revised slightly downward by one-tenth of a percentage point from 7.3 to 7.2 percent.
• Michigan’s 4.6 percent 2017 annual unemployment rate was two-tenths of a percentage point above the national 2017 rate of 4.4 percent.  Since 2015, the Michigan and U.S. annual jobless rates have been very similar.  The state’s 2016 and 2015 annual rates were one-tenth of a percentage point above the national rates.  The last time Michigan’s annual rate was below the national rate was in 2000.
• 2017 marked the eighth consecutive year of annual unemployment rate reductions in Michigan.  The state’s rate fell by 9.1 percentage points since the recent annual high of 13.7 percent in 2009.  Michigan’s 2017 annual rate was the fifth lowest recorded for the state since the official series began in 1976.
• From January 2017 to January 2018, total employment increased in Michigan by 37,000 or 0.8 percent while the number of unemployed in the state declined by 11,000 or 4.5 percent.  Over the same period, total employment nationwide advanced by 1.5 percent while the number of unemployed fell by 12.5 percent.

MICHIGAN
Labor Force Estimates

Seasonally Adjusted
(Data in Thousands)

Detroit Metropolitan Area’s January Unemployment Rate Stable

The Detroit-Warren-Dearborn Metropolitan Statistical Area’s (MSA’s) seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in January was unchanged at 4.4 percent.  Total employment declined over the month by 4,000 in the region while the number of unemployed was unchanged, pushing the area’s workforce down by 4,000 in January.  With the annual revision process, the Detroit MSA annual rate was revised downward by one-tenth of a percentage point from 4.5 to 4.4 percent.  The region’s 2017 annual unemployment rate fell by nine-tenths of a percentage point from the 2016 annual rate of 5.3 percent.  This was the eighth consecutive annual rate reduction in the area, falling by 10.7 percentage points from the recent high of 15.1 percent recorded in 2009.  2017 marked the first time since 2001 that the region’s annual unemployment rate was below the state’s rate.

From January 2017 to January 2018, the Detroit metropolitan area’s jobless rate fell by seven-tenths of a percentage point.  Over that period, total employment advanced by 25,000 or 1.3 percent and the number of unemployed declined by 14,000 or 13.0 percent.  The Detroit MSA’s workforce rose moderately by 11,000 or 0.5 percent since January 2017.

Detroit-Warren-Dearborn MSA
Labor Force Estimates

Seasonally Adjusted
(Data in Thousands)

January Payroll Jobs Edge Upward

According to the monthly survey of employers, seasonally adjusted Michigan payroll jobs increased in January by 6,000 to 4,400,000.  Over-the-month job gains were posted in Professional and business services (+3,000), Education and health services (+2,000), and Other services (+2,000).  January job reductions were recorded in Manufacturing (-2,000) and Leisure and hospitality services (-2,000).  The state’s remaining major industry sectors increased slightly or were stable over the month.

Industry Employment Trends and Highlights                    

• In 2017, Michigan recorded a seventh consecutive year of payroll job gains, with newly revised data indicating that job totals rose by 52,000 or 1.2 percent from annual 2016 to annual 2017.  Since 2010, overall payroll jobs in Michigan rose by 508,000 or 13.1 percent.  The 2017 job advance lagged the annual gains over the last seven years, with the next lowest gain of 62,000 or 1.5 percent recorded from annual 2014 to 2015.  The average yearly payroll job gain over this expansionary period was 72,500 or 1.8 percent.
• Although recording a seven-year string of annual job gains, Michigan 2017 total job count of 4,371,000 remained well below the state’s all-time high level of 4,676,000 displayed in 2000.
• January 2018 marked the fourth consecutive month of payroll job increases.  From September 2017 to January 2018, Michigan’s job count rose by 24,000 or 0.5 percent.
• Retail trade jobs in Michigan throughout 2017 and into early 2018 have shown weakness.  Since January 2017, this sector reported a decline of 3,000 or 0.6 percent.  The only other Michigan major sector to record a job reduction over this period was Information.
• From January 2017 to January 2018, payroll jobs in Michigan increased by 45,000 or 1.0 percent, which lagged the national gain over this period of 1.5 percent.  Michigan major sectors with job additions above the statewide average since January 2017 included Construction (+6.5%), Other services (3.0%), Government (+1.5%), Leisure and hospitality services (+1.4%), Natural resources and mining (+1.4%) and Financial activities (+1.1%).
• Seasonally adjusted average weekly hours of production workers in Manufacturing edged up over the month, while earnings declined slightly.  Average weekly hours and earnings moved upward over the year.

MICHIGAN
Payroll Employment Estimates

Seasonally Adjusted
(Data in Thousands)

Hours & Earnings for Production Workers

Seasonally Adjusted

Note: 

Data Revisions:

The data in this release reflects recently revised historical estimates.  All states in the nation participate in this revision process facilitated by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). 

Seasonally adjusted labor force estimates for 1976-2017 for Michigan and 1990-2017 for the Detroit-Warren-Dearborn MSA were revised.

In addition, all unadjusted payroll job data was revised for 2016-2017.  Certain industries had more extensive data revisions, some back to 1990. Seasonally adjusted payroll job data was revised back to 2013 for all industries. Some sectors had more extensive data revisions, some back to 1990. For newly revised data go to www.milmi.org or contact DTMB at 313-456-3090.

Previously published data for these years should be replaced with this new series.

Methodology Changes:

Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

The seasonal adjustment process for employment and unemployment data has been recently changed by BLS. LAUS will no longer attempt to simultaneously control and seasonally adjust all of the state estimates within each census division. Instead, seasonal adjustment will occur externally by applying a filter to not seasonally adjusted estimates. A trend filter will then be applied to smooth out irregular variation and reduce month-to-month volatility.

Current Employment Statistics (CES)

With the release of January 2018 data, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) state and area program will convert to concurrent seasonal adjustment, which uses all available estimates, including those for the current month, in developing seasonal factors. In the past, the CES program projected seasonal factors once a year during the annual benchmark process.  Both methods use the same 10-year historical sample data as the input. For more information on this change, please visit the Bureau of Labor Statistics website:

https://www.bls.gov/sae/saeconcurrent.htm