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Michigan Statewide Population Projections through 2050 Report

Michigan Statewide Population Projections through 2050 Report

This report from the Michigan Center for Data and Analytics (MCDA) contains new statewide projections for Michigan’s population through 2050. These projections include each of the components of change: births, deaths, and migration. A methodology document is also available.

The dataset for the statewide population projections will be publicly available later this month. Population projections for Michigan counties will be available later this year.

Michigan Statewide Population Projections through 2050

Executive Summary

  • Michigan’s population is expected to experience slow growth and then decline, even with projected net positive migration to the state. Michigan’s population is projected to increase by approximately 231,000 people (2.3 percent) from 2022 through 2034, and then decline to 9,906,000 people by 2050. This represents an overall decline of approximately 128,000 people from 2022 to 2050 (-1.3 percent).
  • Michigan has shifted from a young, higher fertility population to an older, low fertility population. This is a challenging age structure for sustained population growth. Decreasing births and increasing deaths are substantial contributors to the state’s projected slow growth and population decline. These birth and death trends are projected even if the state has net positive migration of working- and family-age migrants. 
  • As the baby boomers age into high mortality years, Michigan is projected to transition to sustained and steepening natural decrease (more deaths than births) through 2050. This is a notable shift since most of Michigan’s growth from the 1970s onward was from natural increase (more births than deaths).
  • Since the 1970s, Michigan has typically had net negative migration. However, future population growth in the state will be increasingly dependent on net positive migration. As natural decrease becomes more severe, Michigan’s future population growth will be reliant on continually higher levels of net positive migration.
  • Michigan is projected to have a slower growth rate and earlier onset of population decline than the United States. The U.S. Census Bureau has projected that the national population will increase by approximately 8 percent from 2022 to 2050 and begin declining in the 2080s.