Domestic Migration Drives Michigan Rural Population Growth from 2020 to 2023

Only 16.5 percent of Michigan’s population lived in rural counties in July 2020. However, looking at recent changes in the state's population, rural counties comprised 40.8 percent of the state’s total population growth from 2020 to 2023.

Michigan’s rural growth in the early 2020s is a notable reversal of rural decline in the 2010s.

Source: Vintage 2023 and 2010-2020 Intercensal Estimates, Population Estimates Program, U.S. Census Bureau

 

After decreasing almost every year from 2010 to 2019, Michigan’s rural population increased yearly from July 2020 to 2023. This growth represents an increase of 9,736 people (0.6 percent) in Michigan’s 40 growing rural counties from July 2020 to 2023. However, this slight population increase in the early 2020s was not enough to offset rural loss throughout the 2010s. Michigan’s 2023 rural population remains below the levels seen in 2013.

Rural and urban counties had divergent trends before the pandemic.

 

Source: Vintage 2023 and 2010-2020 Intercensal Estimates, Population Estimates Program, U.S. Census Bureau

 

On average, rural Michigan counties had an annual percent decrease of 0.1 from 2010 to 2019, compared to an average yearly increase of 0.2 percent from 2020 to 2023.

Urban counties followed a reverse pattern to rural counties from the 2010s through the early 2020s. Urban counties had annual gains in population throughout the 2010s, followed by slowing growth in the late 2010s and population decline in the first years of the COVID-19 pandemic. The population in urban counties increased from 2022 to 2023. Statewide patterns track closely with urban counties since 83.5 percent of the state’s population lives in urban counties.

Rural migration gains were high enough to offset steep natural decrease from 2020 to 2023.

Rural Michigan counties had a cumulative total net migration rate of 19.2 per 1,000 people from 2020 to 2023. Rural net migration gains from 2020 to 2023 were driven by domestic migration from other Michigan counties or states. Rural counties had a net cumulative domestic migration rate of 17.5 per 1,000 people from 2020 to 2023, compared to a cumulative net international migration rate of 1.7 per 1,000 people.

Migration is especially important in rural counties since they are more likely to experience natural decrease (more deaths than births) than urban counties. The rate of natural decrease was -13.5 per 1,000 people for rural counties from 2020 to 2023, compared to -0.89 for urban counties.

The dynamics of natural decrease and net domestic migration gains in the late 2010s were amplified in rural counties from 2020 to 2023.

 

Source: Vintage 2023 and Vintage 2020, Population Estimates Program, U.S. Census Bureau

 

Although Michigan’s rural counties have had persistent natural decrease from 2011 to 2023, this natural decrease steepened from 2020 to 2023. This means rural migration in the early 2020s needed to be high enough to offset this natural decrease. Notably, 75 percent of rural Michigan counties were gaining population from 2020 to 2023 despite the steep natural decrease in this period.

The domestic migration gains in Michigan’s rural counties are consistent with national patterns. Nationally, high housing costs in urban areas and increased remote work likely contributed to rural population growth in the first years of the pandemic. Michigan has many lakes and natural amenities, especially in its rural counties. Many counties nationwide that grew the fastest from 2020 to 2023 were in areas with abundant natural amenities and outdoor recreation, including the Great Lakes region.

This trend of positive migration will need to persist if rural counties are to continue growing.

Consistent with national trends, Michigan’s rural migration gains were slowing in 2023. Although factors such as high urban housing costs, increased remote and hybrid work, and abundant natural amenities likely facilitated Michigan’s rural migration gains in the first years of the pandemic, some factors may limit rural migration and population gains moving forward.

If Michigan’s rural migration gains were mainly due to baby boomers moving to retirement destinations, these gains will likely subside as baby boomers age out of peak retirement years. It is important to determine how much migration gains in rural Michigan counties were due to baby boomer retirement and/or net gains from other states. Nationwide, rural gains were the most substantial in recreational and retirement counties. More research is needed to determine whether Michigan’s rural counties experienced net gains among younger adults who are family and working-age. It remains a key question whether rural Michigan counties were gaining these populations from other Michigan counties in the early 2020s, or from other states.

Rural growth over a longer time horizon will be challenging as baby boomers age into their 70s and 80s and if births continue declining. Rural and urban areas alike will require continuous and higher levels of migration to offset this steepening natural decrease. However, even if growth in the total population is slow or declining, migration still represents an important underlying change to the demographic and economic structures of communities.

Michigan has 83 counties, 53 of which are rural.

Michigan has 53 rural counties according to the most recent federal classification standards. Counties are classified as rural if they are not part of a 2020 metropolitan statistical area.

Source: 2023 Rural-Urban Continuum Codes, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture

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