Michigan’s K-12 Population Decline Likely to Continue

Recent trends in the five- to 17-year-old population

Recently, the Michigan Center for Data and Analytics published projections for state and county populations. These projections allow for examination of specific age groups—in this case, the five- to 17-year-old population. This age group is important to community planners because of its connection to K-12 enrollment. 

Since 2009, about 80 percent of Michigan’s school districts have experienced enrollment reductions. The declining population of five- to 17-year-olds has contributed significantly to these enrollment declines. The five- to 17-year-old population decreased from 1.92 million in 2000 to about 1.57 million in 2022, an 18 percent decline. This article discusses factors contributing to this decline and projected trends.

Why has the five- to 17-year-old population declined?

Declining births have had a substantial impact on the five- to 17-year-old population. In recent years, there have been about 30,000 fewer births in Michigan per year compared to the year 2000 (Fig 1). 

Births are a function of two factors: 

1. Total fertility rates
2. The number of reproductive-age women. 

The total fertility rate is the average number of children expected to be born per woman during her lifetime given current age-specific fertility rates. Replacement-level fertility is approximately 2.1 in most high-income nations. At current survival levels, a total fertility rate of 2.1 would “replace” the current reproductive-age generation with a similar population of adults in the future. 

In 2022, women ages 21–40 gave birth to about 90 percent of children in Michigan. Thus, this age group serves as a reasonable index of the number of women potentially having children in Michigan.

Births have declined by about 30 percent since 2000 and are projected to continue declining.

Figure 1. Michigan Historical and Projected Births from 1980 through 2050

Source: Population, Live Births, Deaths, Marriages and Divorces, Michigan, 1900–2022, Michigan Department of Health and Human Services; 2024 Vintage Population Projections, Michigan Center for Data and Analytics 

View/Download Data Table

 

Declining total fertility rates (TFR) are a significant contributing factor to Michigan’s decline in births. Total fertility spiked to over 4 at the peak of the baby boom in 1957. However, fertility rates decreased dramatically through the 1960s and early 1970s to about 1.75. Fertility rates in Michigan rebounded in the 1990s, nearly reaching replacement level in 1990. However, since 2000, Michigan’s total fertility rate has dropped steadily. As of 2023, Michigan’s TFR was below 1.6. TFR is projected to remain well below replacement through 2050. If accurate, this will result in persistent downward pressure on births and smaller future generations. 

Michigan’s population of women ages 21–40 declined from about 1.53 million in 1990 to about 1.22 million in 2010, a decrease of 20 percent. This decline was related to at least three factors: 

1. Below-replacement total fertility rates since the 1970s, which has contributed to smaller generation sizes
2. Michigan’s substantial out-migration of young adults during the Great Recession
3. The large baby boomer generation aging out of this age range

Since 2010, the number of women ages 21–40 had a small increase to about 1.28 million in 2022. However, decreasing births since 2000 will likely result in declining numbers of women aging into their 20s by the 2030s. From 2030 to 2050, the Michigan Center for Data and Analytics is projecting that the number of women ages 21–40 will decrease by about 14 percent (182,000 people).

What are the projected trends in the five- to 17-year-old population?

If projections of fewer younger women and below-replacement fertility rates are accurate, we can expect significant declines in the five- to 17-year-old-population. From 2025 through 2050, the Michigan Center for Data and Analytics is projecting a decline of about 18 percent in the five- to 17-year-old-population to around 1.26 million (Fig 2). These projections include positive migration through 2050. Thus, even with projected migration averaging about 19,000 people per year, declines in the under-17 population are still expected.

Though trends may differ by district, education professionals can likely expect fewer K-12 age children statewide in coming decades. This decline in young people will also be felt in postsecondary education and the labor force as this generation ages. 

The five- to 17-year-old population is projected to decline by another 280,000 children (18 percent) by 2050.

Figure 2. Michigan Historic and Projected 5-17 Population 2000 through 2050

 
Source: WONDER Database, Centers for Disease Control; 2024 Vintage Population Projections, Michigan Center for Data and Analytics; Population Estimates Program, U.S. Census Bureau 

View/Download Data Table

 

These projections are based on historical and current demographic trends for Michigan, some of which are subject to change. The decline in births since 2000 has already happened and will affect Michigan’s population for decades. However, future variation in total fertility rates (up or down) and migration patterns are more challenging to project. Michigan Center for Data and Analytics projections will be updated periodically so that future iterations will incorporate changes in vital rates and migration.

Find out more:

• View and download state and county population projections data by five-year age group.
• Read and download the Michigan Statewide Population Projections through 2050 report.
• Read highlights from the Michigan county population projections through 2050.