July 15, 2026
Note: In this article, “high school graduates,” “graduates,” and “graduation rates” refer to those that complete or have completed their diploma in four years at a public school.
Although Michigan’s high school graduation rate has improved, the number of high school graduates has fallen significantly since its peak in 2008. Trends in Michigan’s population and high school cohort size suggest that this reduction is likely driven by a decline in the population of school-aged individuals across nearly every county. Some regions that rely heavily on the high school-educated workforce may face an elevated risk of labor shortages, as population projections show a continued reduction in the population of school-aged individuals in these regions.
According to the Michigan Cohort Graduation and Dropout Reports from Michigan’s Center for Educational Performance and Information (CEPI), Michigan had just over 97,000 high school graduates in 2025. While this represented an increase of nearly 1,700 graduates (+1.8 percent) from 2024, it was 12,500 fewer graduates (-11.4 percent) than in 2008—the year with the largest number of high school graduates in the available data. From 2008 to 2021, Michigan experienced an overall decline in the number of graduates, with the sharpest reductions occurring during major economic events such as the Great Recession and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since 2021, there has been a slight upward trend in the number of graduates; however, this increase has not been significant enough to offset the long-term downward trend. Michigan’s cohort size—the number of students in the graduating class across Michigan—has experienced an even more pronounced decline (-20.4 percent) from 2008 to 2025. Despite the decrease in graduates, high school graduation rates steadily increased over this period—the high school graduation rate grew from 75.5 percent in 2008 to 84.0 percent in 2025.
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Index of Michigan Four-Year Public High School Graduates and Cohort Size Over Time (Index Year: 2008)
Source: Michigan Cohort Graduation and Dropout Reports, Michigan’s Center for Educational Performance and Information
The decline in high school graduates has not been uniform across Michigan. Among 81 counties with available data, 59 saw a decrease in graduates and 25 saw a decrease in graduation rates when comparing the three-year averages for 2013–2015 and 2023–2025. Oakland, Macomb, and Genesee counties experienced the largest decreases in the number of graduates, but each of them experienced an increase in the three-year average graduation rate. This demonstrates that the reduction in graduates was not primarily the result of declining graduation rates. Conversely, Kent, Berrien, and Manistee counties had the largest increases in the number of graduates over this period. For these counties, some of the growth was due to the rise in virtual schooling, where student location cannot be easily tracked, making it appear as though more graduates are tied to these areas.
Although the number of high school graduates has declined in most Michigan counties, graduation rates have increased in most. In fact, 42 of the 81 counties with available data had both a decrease in graduates and an increase in graduation rates between the three-year averages. In addition to the reduction in Michigan’s cohort size, this suggests that the decrease in graduates is likely attributable to a shrinking population of school-age students rather than underperforming schools. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Bridged-Race Population Estimates and the U.S. Census Bureau’s County Population by Characteristics: 2020-2025, the population of individuals 24 and younger decreased by 11.4 percent from 2008 to 2025, aligning with the 11.4 percent reduction in graduates over the same period. Just two counties in Michigan saw their population of those 24 and younger increase over this period.
The Michigan statewide population projections through 2050 suggest that the population age 24 and younger is projected to decline by 18.5 percent from 2025 to 2050. If the number of graduates were to decline at this same rate because of this demographic change, Michigan would produce nearly 18,000 fewer graduates in 2050 than were produced in 2025.
Reliance on a high school-educated workforce—the percentage of the employed civilian labor force age 25 to 64 whose highest level of educational attainment is a high school diploma or equivalent—varies widely across Michigan. According to the 2024 American Community Survey Five-Year Estimates, Tuscola County (41.3 percent) ranks highest in high school workforce reliance. Lake (40.6 percent) and Iron (38.5 percent) counties trail closely behind. The least reliant counties are Washtenaw (11.2 percent), Oakland (13.3 percent), and Leelanau (16.6 percent) counties. Although some counties rely more heavily on a high school-educated workforce, a continued decline in the number of high school graduates will eventually affect all counties across the state. As fewer students enroll in postsecondary education and training programs, the impact on the labor force will become more widespread.
Share of Employed Labor Force with High School Diploma as Highest Education Level by County
Source: 2024 Five-Year Estimates, American Community Survey, Table B23006, U.S. Census Bureau
Michigan counties that rely more on high school-educated workers have experienced larger decreases in high school graduatesi. Without migration, labor supply could be impacted as individuals leave the labor market without replacements entering.
Tuscola, Luce, Huron, Sanilac, Ogemaw, and Clare counties rank near the topii for both high school workforce reliance and percentage decline in graduates. These counties, among others, may be at an elevated risk of experiencing a shortage of workers with a high school diploma if current trends continue. Moreover, population projections indicate that some of these same counties will experience steep reductions in the 24 and younger demographic through 2050. Tuscola (-47.6 percent), Luce (-37.3 percent), Huron (-36.1 percent), Sanilac (-28.6 percent), and Ogemaw (-21.8 percent) counties are projected to experience declines exceeding the statewide projected reduction of 18.5 percent. Clare County (-13.6 percent) is expected to have a smaller but still notable decline. These demographic changes would exacerbate the potential labor shortage issue.
Index of Population Projections of People 24 Years Old and Younger Over Time (Index Year: 2025)
Source: Vintage 2024 Population Projections, Michigan Center for Data and Analytics
Based on CEPI’s 2025 Median Annual Wages by Educational Attainment, recent graduates who enter the Michigan labor force typically have higher earnings with increased levels of education. Those with less than a high school diploma earned a median annual wage of $14,200 one year after exiting school, and $22,900 after five years. In contrast, those who obtain a high school diploma or equivalency as their highest level of educational attainment earned $21,700 after one year and $33,100 after five years—an additional $7,500 and $10,200, respectively.
Annual Median Wages by Education Level
Source: 2025 Median Annual Wages by Educational Attainment, Michigan’s Center for Educational Performance and Information
Given the declining population, thus declining graduate numbers, maintaining or improving graduation rates could help slow the decline in the number of graduates. This could offset some of the decline in the available workforce and contribute to a higher median wage. Additionally, those students would be more prepared for postsecondary education and training programs that consistently increase economic outcomes.
Michigan’s declining number of high school graduates and projected reductions in the population age 24 and younger could cause challenges for the statewide labor market. The counties most reliant on high school-educated workers are not only losing a larger share of their graduates but also facing steep demographic declines, causing increased vulnerability to workforce shortages. While increased graduation rates have helped slow the decline in graduates, they have not been able to fully offset the effect of the shrinking population. Further increases in the graduation rate can help mitigate the decline in graduates, but they cannot fully replace the loss in high school-educated workers that will result from continued population decline.
[i] The negative relationship was determined to be statistically significant using a spearman correlation test.
[ii] “Rank near the top” refers to counties in the top quartile for both measures.
