December 20, 2024
Yesterday, the U.S. Census Bureau released new population estimates for the nation and states. This release includes estimates of the population as of July 1, 2024, and is referred to as Vintage 2024. This release also includes revised annual estimates of the total population each year from 2020 to 2023, as well as revised components of change (births, deaths, and migration).
The end of this article provides more information on important methodology updates that impact population trends in Vintage 2024. These updates especially impact international migration estimates.
Michigan’s population increased by an estimated 57,103 people (0.6 percent) from July 2023 to 2024, reaching a population of 10,140,459 in 2024. The 2024 estimate represents a new population high for Michigan.
Michigan Total Population, 2010-2024
Source: Vintage 2024, Population Estimates Program, U.S. Census Bureau
After decreasing from 2020 to 2021, Michigan’s population increased each year from 2021 to 2024. In total, Michigan’s population increased by 67,756 (0.7 percent) from July 2020 to 2024 according to the newest release.
Percent Change in Michigan and U.S. Populations, 2010-2024
Source: Vintage 2024 and 2010-2020 Intercensal Estimates, Population Estimates Program, U.S. Census Bureau
The U.S. population increased by 3,304,757 people (1.0 percent) from 2023 to 2024. From July 2020 to 2024, the nation’s population increased by 8,533,268 people (2.6 percent). Michigan has consistently lagged the U.S. in population growth over this period. Michigan ranked 18th among states in numerical growth from 2023 to 2024 and 34th in percent growth.
Vintage 2024 reports that Michigan’s net international migration has increased each year from 2020 to 2024. It is estimated that Michigan had an international net migration of 67,608 people from July 2023 to June 2024.
Michigan’s international migration estimate in 2024 represents a new annual high since at least the 1990s. The highest previously estimated net international migration was from 2001, where Michigan was estimated to have a net international gain of 23,765 people in a one-year period.
Annual International Migration Rates for Michigan and the U.S., 2010-2024
Source: Vintage 2020 and Vintage 2024, Population Estimates Program, U.S. Census Bureau
The Vintage 2024 release shows rapid recovery in international migration for both Michigan and the U.S., after a recent low from 2020 to 2021. The nation’s population growth from 2023 to 2024 was the highest seen in decades, and was primarily driven by international migration. In terms of state rankings, Michigan was 11th highest numerical gain in international migration from 2023 to 2024 and ranked 18th among states in terms of its international rate.
Annual International and Domestic Migration for Michigan, 2010-2024
Source: Vintage 2020 and Vintage 2024, Population Estimates Program, U.S. Census Bureau
Michigan is estimated to have had a net loss of 7,656 people to other states from 2023 to 2024, and is ranked 41st among states in numeric domestic migration change. Michigan is one of 23 states that experienced domestic loss in this period. The nine states with more severe domestic loss than Michigan include: Hawaii, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Illinois, New York and California. The top five states with the highest numeric domestic gains in 2024 are Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, and Tennessee.
Although Michigan’s domestic migration remained net negative every year from 2020 to 2024, the state’s domestic migration has improved since 2020 and especially the early 2010s. Michigan had a total net migration gain of 59,952 people from 2023 to 2024.
While migration components were the biggest highlights from the Vintage 2024 release, birth and death trends are also important. Births and deaths are represented in “estimates years,” which cover July 1 in the preceding year to June 30 in the following year.
Michigan’s recent peak in deaths was in 2022 when the number was estimated at 117,941. In 2024, deaths in Michigan continued to decline from COVID-19 peaks, dropping an estimated 3,596 (3.4 percent) deaths from 2023 to 102,444 in 2024.
Michigan had an estimated 99,589 births in 2024, showing a decrease of 1,387 (1.4 percent) from the previous year. Despite declines in deaths since 2021, Michigan is estimated to have had more deaths than births (natural decrease) each year since July 2020. Although the nation experienced more births than deaths (natural increase) every year since 2021, Michigan was among 17 states which experienced natural decrease in 2024.
It is important to note that the U.S. Census Bureau implemented methodology changes to international migration in the Vintage 2024 release.
These methodology changes contributed to upward revisions of international migration for the nation. As a result, the U.S. Census Bureau’s estimates of international migration are much higher in 2022 and 2023 compared to last year’s Vintage 2023 release. For example, Michigan showed a net international migration of 22,817 people for year 2023 in last year’s release. Michigan’s international estimate for 2023 was revised upward to 55,863 (an upward revision of 33,046 or 144.8 percent) in this newest vintage release. By comparison, the U.S. Census Bureau’s estimate of net international migration for the nation is 101.7 percent higher for 2023 in this newest release.
International migration is the most challenging population component to estimate. It is not clear whether these international migration trends will persist in Michigan and/or whether the U.S. Census Bureau will continue implementing the same methodology adjustment to future vintages. The U.S. Census Bureau is working on improving its international migration estimation method for states and counties. It is possible that there could be substantial revisions to Michigan’s international migration estimates in future releases as the U.S. Census Bureau continues refining its methods for the states.
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