January 27, 2026
Today the U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program released new population estimates for the nation and states. This release includes estimates of the population as of July 1, 2025, and is referred to as “Vintage 2025.” This release also includes revised annual estimates of the total population each year from 2020 to 2024, as well as revised components of change (births, deaths, and migration).
More information on revisions is available in the Census Bureau’s methodology updates for the Vintage 2025 estimates.
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Figure 1. Michigan Total Population, 2010-2025
Source: 2010-2020 Intercensal Estimates and Vintage 2025, Population Estimates Program, U.S. Census Bureau
The Census Bureau estimates that Michigan’s population was 10,127,884 as of July, 1 2025. This represents an increase of 27,922 people (0.3 percent) from July 2024 to 2025. The state’s population is estimated to have increased by 85,522 people (0.9 percent) over the four-year period from 2021 to 2025.
Figure 2. Percent Change in Michigan and U.S. Population, 2010-2025
Source: 2010-2020 Intercensal Estimates and Vintage 2025, Population Estimates Program, U.S. Census Bureau
The national population increased by 1,781,060 people (0.5 percent) from 2024 to 2025. Michigan has consistently lagged the nation in population growth from 2010 to 2025. Michigan ranked 18th among states in numerical growth from 2024 to 2025 and 35th in percent growth.
Figure 3. Annual International and Domestic Migration for Michigan, 1991-2025
Source: Vintage 2000, Vintage 2010, Vintage 2020 and Vintage 2025, Population Estimates Program, U.S. Census Bureau
The Census Bureau estimates that Michigan had a net international migration of 30,706 from July 1, 2024 to June 30, 2025. This international estimate is lower than it was the previous year. Overall, however, Michigan’s international migration from 2022 through June 2025 remains higher than the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s.
When compared to the nation, Michigan continues to experience net international migration rates below the U.S. average. Michigan ranks 23rd among states in terms of its net international migration rate from July 2024 to June 2025.
It is important to note that the Congressional Budget Office estimates that net immigration to the U.S. declined in 2025. The July 1, 2024-June 30, 2025 estimate period in this release does not reflect changes to international migration patterns that occurred after June 30, 2025.
Migration between states is referred to as “domestic migration.” The Census Bureau estimates that Michigan had a net domestic migration of 1,796 from July 1, 2024 to June 30, 2025.
Though small, Michigan’s net domestic gains in 2025 are notable. This is the first time since at least 1990 that the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program showed net domestic gains for Michigan. Michigan’s annual average net domestic migration for the 2020s so far has improved relative to the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s.
It is important to note that the net gain of 1,796 in 2025 is very small relative to the overall size of the state’s population. Michigan continues to have a relatively low domestic migration rate when accounting for population size. Michigan’s domestic migration rate ranked 31st in the nation in 2025.
Figure 4. Births, Deaths, and Natural Change (Births minus Deaths) in Michigan, 2010-2025
Source: Vintage 2020 and Vintage 2025, Population Estimates Program, U.S. Census Bureau
Like the migration component, births and deaths are represented in “estimates years,” which cover July 1 in the preceding year to June 30 in the following year.
The Census Bureau estimated there were 99,680 births in Michigan from July 2024 to June 2025. This represents a very small increase of 77 births (0.1 percent) from the previous year. Even with this small increase, births remain lower in 2025 than any year in the 2010s.
Michigan had 104,678 deaths from July 2024 to June 2025. This represents an increase of 1,242 (1.2 percent) deaths from the previous year. Deaths remain below the COVID peak in 2022 but higher than any year in the 2010s.
When subtracting deaths from births, Michigan had a natural decrease of 4,998 from July 2024 to June 2025. Michigan is among 17 states that experienced natural decrease for five consecutive years from July 2020 to 2025.
Michigan’s natural decrease in 2025 was not as severe as the state’s levels of natural decrease in 2021, 2022, and 2023. However, declining births are part of a long-term trend in Michigan. Deaths will continue to increase as a large birth cohort, the baby boomers, age into high mortality years.
Natural decrease will continue placing downward pressure on potential population growth in the state. Potential population growth in the upcoming years is sensitive to consistent and higher levels of migration.
The Census Bureau adjusts the methodology and data inputs that it uses for its population estimates every year. This can result in revisions to estimates in prior years. The Census Bureau presented methods changes to the Vintage 2025 release on January 20, 2026. This presentation provides a full summary of changes to the population components of change (births, deaths, and migration) in Vintage 2025.
The Census Bureau’s changes to the international migration estimate resulted in substantial revisions to the state’s international migration estimate for 2022, 2023, and 2024. Michigan’s international estimate for 2024 was revised from 67,608 in last year’s vintage release to 50,486 in this newest vintage release. This represents a downward revision of 17,122 (25.3 percent) for the 2024 international migration estimate.
The Census Bureau’s estimate of domestic migration for 2024 also received a downward revision in this newest vintage release. Michigan’s domestic migration estimate for 2024 was revised from -7,656 in last year’s vintage release to -8,065 in this newest release. This represents a downward revision of 409 (5.3 percent) for the 2024 domestic migration estimate.
Migration is the most challenging population component to estimate. Comparing trends across datasets can help determine if those trends are consistent. Since Michigan’s population trajectory (up or down) is sensitive to migration, it will be important to monitor changes to migration estimates in upcoming data releases.
