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Random Selection
Random Selection
The Michigan Constitution outlines a specific timeline and process for the random selection of the final 13 commissioners of the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission.
The Secretary of State must randomly select commissioners from the pool of eligible applicants. There are a three primary steps in that process.
Learn more
Process and timeline
Filling vacancies
Random selection methodology
View the random selection YouTube playlist
Learn more about the random selection process
Process and timeline
As required by the Michigan Constitution, the Secretary of State must follow a specific process for the random selection of the final 13 commissioners. This process was completed between June and August 2020.
There are a three primary steps in this process.
Step 1: Semifinalist 200 random selection
Following the closure of the application period, the Secretary of State's Office must randomly select 200 semifinalist applicants and provide those applications to the Michigan Legislature for review. Of the 200 randomly selected applicants:
- 60 people must affiliate with the Republican Party,
- 60 people must affiliate with the Democratic Party, and
- 80 must not affiliate with either of those political parties.
The Secretary of State's office was required to use statistical weighting methods to ensure the pool of 200 semifinalists mirrors the geographic and demographic makeup of the state, as specified by the state constitution.
• View a livestream of the semifinalist 200 random selection
• View a livestream of additional random selection to replace incomplete applications
Step 2: Legislative Strikes
In July 2020 the minority and majority leaders in the Michigan Senate and the Speaker of the House and minority leader in the Michigan House removed 20 applicants from the semifinalist pool, as permitted by the Michigan Constitution. This left a remaining pool of 180 semifinalist applicants.
- View correspondence from the legislature regarding their constitutional strikes
- View Excel spreadsheet of 180 semifinalist applicants
Step 3: Final 13 random selection
In August 2020, from the remaining pool of 180 semifinalist applicants, the Secretary of State's office randomly selected thirteen commissioners;
- Four people who affiliate with the Republican Party,
- Four people who affiliate with the Democratic Party, and
- Five people who do not affiliate with either major political party to serve on commission.
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Is the selection process truly random?
Yes. The Secretary of State plays a purely administrative role in the random selection process. Applicants drawn in various stages of the selection process are selected at random, and the random-ness of that selection will be verified by external, independent firms as well as public observers.
Learn more about the constitutionally required statistical weighting methodology for the random selection in the following sections.
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How many Michiganders applied to serve on the Commission?
From October 24, 2019 to June 1, 2020, the Department of State made applications available to serve on the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission as required by the Michigan Constitution. More than 9,367 applications were processed.
Learn more about the application period.
View the final applicant numbers.
Review a PDF copy of the application. -
Who is eligible to serve on the Commission?
The Michigan Constitution outlines the eligibility requirements for members of the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission.
Review Commissioner eligibility guidelines.
Filling vacancies
The Secretary of State’s office is constitutionally required to fill a vacancy on the commission by randomly drawing a name from the remaining qualifying applicants in the selection pool from which the original commissioner was selected.
Random selections conducted by the Michigan Department of State to fill commissioner vacancies are listed as follows.
Random Selection to fill commission vacancy – September 23, 2020
Press release
View the livestreamed random selection
James E Decker Resignation
Random Selection to fill commission vacancy – October 21, 2020
Press release
View the livestreamed random selection
Glenn Shaw Resignation
Random Selection to fill commission vacancies – January 3, 2024
Press Release
View the livestreamed random selection at 3:30 p.m., Wednesday January 3, 2024
Clark resignation letter
Rothhorn resignation letter
Witjes resignation letter
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Can I apply to fill a vacancy to serve on the current commission?
The application period for the current commission closed in June of 2020. Vacancies on the commission are required to be filled by randomly drawing a name from the remaining qualifying applicants in the selection pool from which the original commissioner was selected.
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Why are vacancies on the commission filled by the Secretary of State’s office?
The Michigan Constitution requires that when a seat on the commission becomes vacant, “the secretary of state shall fill the vacancy by randomly drawing a name from the remaining qualifying applicants in the selection pool from which the original commissioner was selected.” The Secretary of State plays a purely administrative role in the random selection process.
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What causes a vacancy to occur on the commission?
The Michigan Constitution states that a commissioner's office shall become vacant upon the occurrence of any of the following:
(a) Death or mental incapacity of the commissioner;
(b) The secretary of state's receipt of the commissioner's written resignation;
(c) The commissioner's disqualification for election or appointment or employment pursuant to article XI, section 8;
(d) The commissioner ceases to be qualified to serve as a commissioner under part (1) of this section; or
(e) After written notice and an opportunity for the commissioner to respond, a vote of 10 of the commissioners finding substantial neglect of duty, gross misconduct in office, or inability to discharge the duties of office.
Random Selection Methodology
The Michigan Constitution outlines a specific process for the random selection of the semifinalist 200 pool of applicants, as well as the final 13 commissioners.
Transparency
The Michigan Department of State has taken deliberate steps to ensure transparency and wide public participation in the random selection process at each step. Each random selection conducted by the Secretary of State’s office is livestreamed for the public in real time.
Through a standard public bidding process, the Michigan Department of State engaged Rehmann LLC, an independent third-party certified public accounting firm, to conduct each random selection. To conduct the random selections, Rehmann LLC developed a custom software program, using Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications within the framework of Microsoft Excel. A copy of the software in an Excel file can be made available upon request.
Statistical weighting methods
During the random selection of the 200 semifinalist pool of applicants, the Secretary of State's office was required by the Michigan Constitution to “use accepted statistical weighting methods to ensure that the pools, as closely as possible, mirror the geographic and demographic makeup of the state”
- View the constitutional criteria and the statistical weighting methods used at this link.
- View the final geographic and demographic makeup of the 200 semifinalists
During the random selection of the final 13 commissioners, the Michigan Constitution requires the Secretary of State’s office to “randomly draw the names of four commissioners from each of the two pools of remaining applicants affiliating with a major party, and five commissioners from the pool of remaining non-affiliating applicants.”
This means that no statistical weighting measures were used during the final random selection of 13 commissioners to mirror the demographic and geographic makeup of state. Commissioners were drawn from the semifinalist pool at random from each required affiliation pool.
Similarly, random selections conducted to fill vacancies on the commission use no statistical weighting measures to mirror the demographic and geographic makeup of the state. Random selections conducted by the Secretary of State’s office to fill vacancies on the commission are conducted by randomly drawing a name from the remaining qualifying applicants in the selection pool from which the original commissioner was selected.
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What data was used to define the demographic and geographic makeup of the state?
The Secretary of State’s office utilized data from the 2018 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimate, which is available to the general public via the American Community Survey Data Profiles online search tool. Michigan demographic information can be viewed here, and detailed tables with data for race and ethnicity, age and sex, and geographic distribution are also available.
The variables were defined as follows:
Demographic Variables
Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin?Yes - 5.0%
No - 95.0%Race
White - 78.52%
Black or African American - 13.81%
American Indian or Alaska Native - 0.53%
Asian - 3.06%
Other - 1.23%
Two or more races - 2.85%Sex
Males - 49.2%
Females - 50.8%Age
18-34 years old - 28.8%
35-54 years old - 32.4%
55+ years old - 38.8%Geographic Variables
- Southeast Michigan - 35.4% of the total state population
- Eaton, Ingham, Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Jackson, Washtenaw, Hillsdale, Lenawee, Monroe
- Wayne County - 17.7% of the total state population
- West Michigan - 23.8% of the total state population
- Oceana, Newaygo, Mecosta, Isabella, Muskegon, Montcalm, Ottawa, Kent, Ionia, Allegan, Barry, Van Buren, Kalamazoo, Calhoun, Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph, Branch
- East Central Michigan - 13.6% of the total state population
- Midland, Bay, Huron, Gratiot, Saginaw, Tuscola, Sanilac, Clinton, Shiawassee, Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair
- Northern Michigan - 6.4% of the total state population
- Emmet, Cheboygan, Charlevoix, Presque Isle, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, Alpena, Leelanau, Grand Traverse, Benzie, Kalkaska, Crawford, Oscoda, Alcona, Manistee, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco, Mason, Lake, Osceola, Arenac, Clare, Gladwin
- Upper Peninsula - 3.1% of the total state population
- Gogebic, Ontonagon, Houghton, Keweenaw, Baraga, Iron, Marquette, Dickinson, Menominee, Alger, Delta, Schoolcraft, Luce, Mackinac, Chippewa
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How large a deviation from the target population proportions did the State accept in the pool of 200 semi-finalists?
The Department's independent contractor, Rehmann LLC, provided the Department with a recommendation based on practical field tests of the software application and preliminary test data. Accordingly, the statistical tolerances for the random selection of 200 semifinalists were set to the following:
- Sex: 5.0% tolerance
- Race: 3.0% tolerance
- Hispanic: 2.0% tolerance
- Age: 5.0% tolerance
- Region: 5.0% tolerance
Additionally, at least one applicant from each demographic and geographic sub-category (including all racial groups and all geographic regions) must be included in the group of 200 semifinalists.
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Are the selection demographics based on the total population or the voting age population (18 and over)?
The Michigan Constitution requires that the Secretary of State's office use "accepted statistical weighting methods to ensure that the pools, as closely as possible, mirror the geographic and demographic makeup of the state." Accordingly, the demographics for race and ethnicity, sex, and geographic area are based on the total population in Michigan. However, in order to avoid a weighting imbalance and propose nearly equal weights for eligible age categories, we did not factor people age 17 and under into the weighted categories for age.
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Are Hispanic, Latino, and Spanish origin responses considered a "race" variable? Are they calculated together with or separate from non-Hispanic racial categories?
On the U.S. Census and the American Community Survey, "Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin" is a separate question from "Race." They are separate categories and our proposed method treats them as separate variables as well. In other words, the categories for race include both Hispanic and non-Hispanic individuals. For example, a person could be both Hispanic and black, or non-Hispanic and black, and they would both be identified as "black" for the racial category. Hispanic identity is captured in a separate question, which makes it a separate variable.
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How did the State plan combine the requirement for the partisan breakdown on the Commission (30%/30%/40%) with the rule that the selection process should "use accepted statistical weighting methods to ensure that the pools, as closely as possible, mirror the geographic and demographic makeup of the state"?
The Michigan Constitution requires that the entire pool of 200 "semifinalists" R(30%/30%/40%) mirror the geographic and demographic makeup of the state individually - only that the combined pool of 200 semifinalists collectively mirror the state.
Accordingly, each demographic factor was separately weighted and considered, without any cross tabulation of political party affiliation. The formula randomly selected 60 applicants who affiliate with the Democratic Party, 60 applicants who affiliate with the Republican Party, and 80 applicants who do not affiliate with either party, until the group of 200 meets the demographic and geographic criteria to reflect the state as a whole. That group of 200 semifinalists was referred to the legislature. That will be the group of 200 semifinalists referred to the legislature. -
Did the State use raking to apply the demographic weights to the group of applicants prior to selecting semifinalists? If so, what is the exact function in the visual basic program?
Yes, raking was performed using basic Excel functions. "Raking" is a statistical method for weighting data, commonly used in polls or surveys (for example, see Pew Research Center's explanation). Each application received a weighting factor for each demographic variable. The formula is a simple ratio of the percentage in the population of applications to the target percentage from the U.S. Census.
For more explanation, view the archived livestream of random selection.
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What if the random selection fails to meet stated criteria?
In order to maintain the statistical randomness of the process, the software application is operated in a fully automated manner. Once the applications were loaded and the tolerances set for mirroring "as closely as possible" the geographic and demographic makeup of the state, the computer drew a random selection of 200 applications - 60 who affiliate with the Democratic Party, 60 who affiliate with the Republican Party, and 80 who do not affiliate with either party. Once that sample was within the stated tolerances, the program output the results. In other words, in this automated process individual applicants were never discarded. Every applicant had the opportunity to be selected until all 200 met the stated criteria.