Random Selection

Yes. The Secretary of State plays a purely administrative role in the random selection process. Applicants drawn in various stages of the selection process are selected at random, and the random-ness of that selection will be verified by external, independent firms as well as public observers. 

Learn more about the constitutionally required statistical weighting methodology for the random selection in the following sections.

From October 24, 2019 to June 1, 2020, the Department of State made applications available to serve on the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission as required by the Michigan Constitution. More than 9,367 applications were processed.

Learn more about the application period.
View the final applicant numbers.
Review a PDF copy of the application.

The Michigan Constitution outlines the eligibility requirements for members of the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission.

Review Commissioner eligibility guidelines.

The application period for the current commission closed in June of 2020. Vacancies on the commission are required to be filled by randomly drawing a name from the remaining qualifying applicants in the selection pool from which the original commissioner was selected.

The Michigan Constitution requires that when a seat on the commission becomes vacant, “the secretary of state shall fill the vacancy by randomly drawing a name from the remaining qualifying applicants in the selection pool from which the original commissioner was selected.” The Secretary of State plays a purely administrative role in the random selection process.

The Michigan Constitution states that a commissioner's office shall become vacant upon the occurrence of any of the following:

  (a) Death or mental incapacity of the commissioner;
  (b) The secretary of state's receipt of the commissioner's written resignation;
  (c) The commissioner's disqualification for election or appointment or employment pursuant to article XI, section 8;
  (d) The commissioner ceases to be qualified to serve as a commissioner under part (1) of this section; or
  (e) After written notice and an opportunity for the commissioner to respond, a vote of 10 of the commissioners finding substantial neglect of duty, gross misconduct in office, or inability to discharge the duties of office.

The Secretary of State’s office utilized data from the 2018 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimate, which is available to the general public via the American Community Survey Data Profiles online search tool. Michigan demographic information can be viewed here, and detailed tables with data for race and ethnicity, age and sex, and geographic distribution are also available.

The variables were defined as follows:

Demographic Variables
Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin?

Yes - 5.0%
No - 95.0%

Race

White - 78.52%
Black or African American - 13.81%
American Indian or Alaska Native - 0.53%
Asian - 3.06%
Other - 1.23%
Two or more races - 2.85%

Sex

Males - 49.2%
Females - 50.8%

Age

18-34 years old - 28.8%
35-54 years old - 32.4%
55+ years old - 38.8%

Geographic Variables

• Southeast Michigan - 35.4% of the total state population
• Eaton, Ingham, Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Jackson, Washtenaw, Hillsdale, Lenawee, Monroe
• Wayne County - 17.7% of the total state population
• West Michigan - 23.8% of the total state population
• Oceana, Newaygo, Mecosta, Isabella, Muskegon, Montcalm, Ottawa, Kent, Ionia, Allegan, Barry, Van Buren, Kalamazoo, Calhoun, Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph, Branch
• East Central Michigan - 13.6% of the total state population
• Midland, Bay, Huron, Gratiot, Saginaw, Tuscola, Sanilac, Clinton, Shiawassee, Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair
• Northern Michigan - 6.4% of the total state population
• Emmet, Cheboygan, Charlevoix, Presque Isle, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, Alpena, Leelanau, Grand Traverse, Benzie, Kalkaska, Crawford, Oscoda, Alcona, Manistee, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco, Mason, Lake, Osceola, Arenac, Clare, Gladwin
• Upper Peninsula - 3.1% of the total state population
• Gogebic, Ontonagon, Houghton, Keweenaw, Baraga, Iron, Marquette, Dickinson, Menominee, Alger, Delta, Schoolcraft, Luce, Mackinac, Chippewa

The Department's independent contractor, Rehmann LLC, provided the Department with a recommendation based on practical field tests of the software application and preliminary test data. Accordingly, the statistical tolerances for the random selection of 200 semifinalists were set to the following:

• Sex: 5.0% tolerance
• Race: 3.0% tolerance
• Hispanic: 2.0% tolerance
• Age: 5.0% tolerance
• Region: 5.0% tolerance

Additionally, at least one applicant from each demographic and geographic sub-category (including all racial groups and all geographic regions) must be included in the group of 200 semifinalists.

The Michigan Constitution requires that the Secretary of State's office use "accepted statistical weighting methods to ensure that the pools, as closely as possible, mirror the geographic and demographic makeup of the state." Accordingly, the demographics for race and ethnicity, sex, and geographic area are based on the total population in Michigan. However, in order to avoid a weighting imbalance and propose nearly equal weights for eligible age categories, we did not factor people age 17 and under into the weighted categories for age.

On the U.S. Census and the American Community Survey, "Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin" is a separate question from "Race." They are separate categories and our proposed method treats them as separate variables as well. In other words, the categories for race include both Hispanic and non-Hispanic individuals. For example, a person could be both Hispanic and black, or non-Hispanic and black, and they would both be identified as "black" for the racial category. Hispanic identity is captured in a separate question, which makes it a separate variable.

The Michigan Constitution requires that the entire pool of 200 "semifinalists" R(30%/30%/40%) mirror the geographic and demographic makeup of the state individually - only that the combined pool of 200 semifinalists collectively mirror the state. 
Accordingly, each demographic factor was separately weighted and considered, without any cross tabulation of political party affiliation. The formula randomly selected 60 applicants who affiliate with the Democratic Party, 60 applicants who affiliate with the Republican Party, and 80 applicants who do not affiliate with either party, until the group of 200 meets the demographic and geographic criteria to reflect the state as a whole. That group of 200 semifinalists was referred to the legislature. That will be the group of 200 semifinalists referred to the legislature.

Yes, raking was performed using basic Excel functions. "Raking" is a statistical method for weighting data, commonly used in polls or surveys (for example, see Pew Research Center's explanation). Each application received a weighting factor for each demographic variable. The formula is a simple ratio of the percentage in the population of applications to the target percentage from the U.S. Census.

For more explanation, view the archived livestream of random selection.

In order to maintain the statistical randomness of the process, the software application is operated in a fully automated manner. Once the applications were loaded and the tolerances set for mirroring "as closely as possible" the geographic and demographic makeup of the state, the computer drew a random selection of 200 applications - 60 who affiliate with the Democratic Party, 60 who affiliate with the Republican Party, and 80 who do not affiliate with either party. Once that sample was within the stated tolerances, the program output the results.  In other words, in this automated process individual applicants were never discarded. Every applicant had the opportunity to be selected until all 200 met the stated criteria.